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PICKS FOR SATURDAY, MARCH 21, 2020 (11 DAYS AGO) [refresh]
3/21/2020
1:30 PM EST
MMA
TOM ASPINALL VS. JAKE COLLIER

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PICK: TOM ASPINALL (-175)

RISK: 2 UNITS
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CHAT
PICK WRITE-UP: Aspinall is rightfully the heavy favorite in this bout. Although this will be his UFC debut, he has some significant advantages over Collier. First, Collier is making his heavyweight debut, and is coming off a layoff of over two years. Although we won't know his exact weight until closer to fight night, he is almost certain to yield around 50 lbs to his opponent (and 2 inches). Aspinall has won three straight fights, all in the first round. Fighting in his home country, expect Aspinall to win rather easily, and get your wager in before the lines have moved even further as I expect much of the money to come in on Aspinall's side over the coming week.
PICK MADE ON 3/15/2020 AT 4:08 AM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/17/2020 AT 11:53 PM EST
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3/21/2020
1:55 PM EST
MMA
DUSKO TODOROVIC VS. JOHN PHILLIPS

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PICK: JOHN PHILLIPS (+175)

RISK: 2 UNITS
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CHAT
PICK WRITE-UP: John Phillips undoubtedly has a tough fight ahead of him, as Todorovic is 9 years younger than Phillips, and has yet to lose a fight, though this will be his UFC debut and will surely put his 9-0 record to the test. Although 34-year-old Phillips may have lost a step with age, his extensive experience and ability to train with UFC stars such as Conor McGregor at the SBG Ireland gym, combined with his penchant for winning fights quickly (only 2 decisions in 31 career fights; 86% of his victories have come via KO/TKO) all point to him being far from the underdog sportsbooks currently have him listed as. Though Todorovic is a daunting challenge, I believe money will come in on Phillips' side during the week and shorten his odds. Now is the perfect time to take advantage of the early line and grab some value with an underdog whose odds I believe are better than the current line reflects.
PICK MADE ON 3/15/2020 AT 4:26 AM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/17/2020 AT 11:53 PM EST
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3/21/2020
5:45 PM EST
MMA
NICOLAS DALBY VS. DANNY ROBERTS

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PICK: DANNY ROBERTS (+135)

RISK: 2 UNITS
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CHAT
PICK WRITE-UP: I believe this should be closer to even odds, and expect the closing line to reflect that. Betting Roberts at +135 is a value pick, as he and Dalby are as close to evenly matched as one can imagine. On the one hand, Roberts' last 8 fights have ended by KO; in contrast, Dalby has never been finished and has gone to decision in each of his five career UFC bouts. If Dalby can get Roberts on the floor, as is his strength and Roberts' weakness, Dalby will likely win by submission. However, Dalby struggles against fellow southpaw fighters, unlike Roberts, and has half as many UFC bouts under his belt (2-2-1) as Roberts (6-4). Provided Roberts can defend Dalby's takedown attempts, his superior ability to land accurate, powerful strikes I believe should allow him to win this bout, likely by decision.
PICK MADE ON 3/15/2020 AT 4:45 AM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/17/2020 AT 11:53 PM EST
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3/21/2020
6:15 PM EST
MMA
KEVIN HOLLAND VS. JACK MARSHMAN

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PICK: JACK MARSHMAN (+265)

RISK: 1 UNIT
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CHAT
PICK WRITE-UP: This is a longshot pick but one that I believe presents value at its current line. Holland has an 8-in reach advantage, and is statistically superior at both landing strikes as well as grappling. Underestimating Marshman, however, would be a mistake. His extensive experience against fighters with similar stances as Holland's, and his recent 2019 defeat of John Phillips (who Holland defeated in 2018), combined with both fighters' defeat at the hands of Thiago Santos (Holland in 2018, Marshman in 2017) indicate these fighters may be quite evenly matched. Key to Marshman's success is his ability to absorb and defend a large number of strikes during a bout. With 56% of his victories coming via KO/TKO, he'll need to stay off the floor, and land some significant blows on Holland, who has never lost via KO/TKO, in order to pull off the upset. I still consider Holland the favorite, but at these bloated odds I see value putting a small wager on Marshman, as I expect his odds will shorten as fight night draws near.
PICK MADE ON 3/15/2020 AT 5:02 AM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/17/2020 AT 11:54 PM EST
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3/21/2020
6:45 PM EST
MMA
LEON EDWARDS VS. TYRON WOODLEY

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PICK: LEON EDWARDS (-144)

RISK: 2 UNITS
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CHAT
PICK WRITE-UP: These are two excellent UFC fighters. Expect a lengthy fight, as both excel at defending against takedowns, yet are excellent grapplers who are sure to attempt plenty throughout the bout. Ultimately, Edwards' ability to land significant strikes at a high rate while avoiding absorbing them at nearly the same rate I believe will give him the edge over what is sure to be a long fight between two accomplished UFC athletes. Woodley's age (37) will eventually prove to be an issue, as Edwards simply is in the peak of his career (28) physically and in peak technical fighting form (8-fight winning streak). Get Edwards at this line before more money pours in on his side and further shortens his odds.
PICK MADE ON 3/15/2020 AT 5:14 AM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/17/2020 AT 11:54 PM EST
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PICKS FOR WEDNESDAY, MARCH 11, 2020 (21 DAYS AGO) [refresh]
3/11/2020
7:35 PM EST
NBA
NEW YORK KNICKS VS. ATLANTA HAWKS

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PICK: UNDER 230 (-105)

RISK: 3 UNITS
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CHAT
PICK MADE ON 3/11/2020 AT 8:19 AM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/11/2020 AT 11:27 PM EST
-3.00
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3/11/2020
7:35 PM EST
NBA
NEW YORK KNICKS VS. ATLANTA HAWKS (1ST HALF)

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PICK: OVER 118 (-106)

RISK: 3 UNITS
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CHAT
PICK MADE ON 3/11/2020 AT 8:23 AM EST
PICK GRADED ON 3/11/2020 AT 9:35 PM EST
-3.00
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