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Documented Record for EVmma Picks
* Return on Investment (ROI) figures above represent potential returns
based on a $100 per unit risk amount. Please note that past results
do not guarantee or imply future performance.
Handicapper Bio
ONLY MMA
My strategy mainly consists of increasing my expected value (EV) for every bet I place at the cost of variance. You will see me post a lot of "long-shots" on here, where win frequencies are lower, but returns are far greater. To be frank, I just make the bets no one wants to make - but should.
Accumulators
I use a lot of accumulators when betting and there are many misconceptions that people claim accumulators have. A big misconception you will hear is the bookmakers edge increases whenever you use an accumulator. While this may be true if you are a consistent loser, this is 100% false if you are the opposite. When you are a loser the bookies "edge" for each leg of the accumulator multiplies by the next leg (increasing their EV); however if you have an edge on all of your legs, your edges will multiply by each other, thus increasing your EV. This does however come at a price, increased variance.
Variance
There are several misunderstandings on variance. Variance is not bad or good, it means that your sample size must be greater to pin point your average expected value for a given population (population being- every bet you've ever placed). Therefore, if I increase the amount of times I bet. this will lower my variance for the strategy I'm using. Furthermore, using a high variance strategy does not mean you are more likely to under-perform,in fact you are equally as likely to over-perform.
for more info on Expected Value, Accumulators (Parlays) and Variance see: Profitability of parlays in sports betting
Handicapper Blog
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MrSoccer
