Originally Published In Sports Book Wire
2020 Super Bowl prop bets allow us to get creative and turn the game into a four-hour cross between a slot and pinball machine: Hits, misses, swings of momentum and a ton of fun!
Super Bowl Prop Betting Strategy
When I lay out Super Bowl LIV prop plays, I want to set up action that will come due at different parts of the game, from first-this and first-that to final results and final stats, with quarterly and halftime stops along the way.
BetMGM sportsbook set up its props in match (game) or player categories. So, we’ll mix and match those and build a chronological menu of my favorite 2020 Super Bowl prop bet recommended plays, with varying degrees of risk/reward.
Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bets
Let’s start at the beginning. Or, because we can – let’s start before the beginning:
Super Bowl Prop Bet: Coin flip
Heads and tails are both at -104. (I’ll save you the research: Tails leads the all-time series, 28-25.)
Super Bowl Prop Bet: First play of the game
Then let’s go to the first play of the game — Run or Pass.
I’m telling whoever will listen that first play — pass at +125 is my value play of the game.
I want to spread out the plays and not have my action be first-quarter heavy, so I’ll skip some other early firsts and go with the:
Super Bowl Prop Bet: Time elapsed before first score
The eight-minute mark is the line of demarcation, and its an even-money prop. Then I’ll add is some potential 2-to-1, 3-to-1, 5-to-1 type action with…
Super Bowl Prop Bet: Defining what team and what score
Touchdown, field goal or safety are in play for each team, and here are BetMGM‘s odds:
- 49ers field goal +375
- Chiefs field goal +330
- 49ers safety +5000
- Chiefs safety +5500
- 49ers touchdown +200
- Chiefs touchdown +190
That brings in a bigger risk/reward factor after a few more level props.
For some late first-quarter and second-quarter action, we can bring the FIRST QUARTER TOTAL and LAST-2 MINUTES/FIRST HALF TD props into play.
Let’s also include a couple player events that are hittable early:
- Jimmy Garoppolo O/U on longest pass of 35.5 yards and
- Garoppolo interception (Yes!)
are a fun combo that will have you rooting for downfield efforts caught by, well, anyone.
Let’s include a…
Super Bowl Prop Bet: Halftime total
First half totals:
- 24.5 points: Over -134 / Under +110
- 25.5 points: Over -129 / Under +105
- 26.5 points: Over -115 / Under -106
- 27.5 points: Over +105 / Under -129
- 28.5 points: Over +120 / Under -154
Second-half Super Bowl Prop Betting
For third- and fourth-quarter activity, I like player O/U yardage totals (ex. GAROPPOLO — 200 PASSING YARDS, DAMIEN WILLIAMS – 100 RUSHING YARDS) more so than TDs. Those start to approach win/loss status in the second half. Pick two or three.
Supplement those with a couple longshots in the PLAYER TOUCHDOWNdepartment. So, you might cash +116 on Tyreek Hill’s sixth catch and +260 on a Sammy Watkins touchdown grab: again, mixing and maxing when we expect events to hit and different price points.
Let’s close out our props with a few endgame, final-results driven plays. A big yard-count prop fits here…
Super Bowl Prop Bet: Mahomes passing yards
Patrick Mahomes passing O/U 350.5 yards pays at +240 for the Over and -204 on the Under, which is a fun one that you could be sweating out until the very last play of the game.
And wrap it all up with perhaps two or three win-by-x-points plays on the team side. Those will be big risk/reward plays to keep us looking forward the whole night.